Idaho 4Q Conclusions
The pace of job growth in Idaho continues to slow. That said, with the addition of 23,800 jobs over the past 12 months, the pace of growth was still an impressive 3%. The Boise metro area grew at a more modest 2.5% rate. The job market there is clearly showing signs of fatigue, adding only 200 new jobs over the past three months. Idaho’s unemployment rate was 3%, down modestly from 3.2% a year ago. In the Boise metro area, 2.6% of the labor force was unemployed, down from 2.8% a year ago. Even if the country enters a recession this year, I expect that Idaho will still add jobs, but at a much slower pace than we have seen since the post-pandemic recovery started. My current forecast shows that the state will add about 114,000 jobs in 2023, which suggests that employment growth will slow to around 2%.
Idaho Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 4,777 homes sold, which was 36.1% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021 and down 8.9% from the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Listing activity fell 12.7% from the third quarter, but was 52.9% higher than fourth quarter of 2021.
❱ Compared to the same period a year prior, sales fell in all markets covered by this report. Relative to the third quarter of 2022, sales rose in all Northern Idaho markets but fell in every southern market other than Gem County.
❱ Pending sales were 19.2% lower than in the third quarter of the year, which means it’s unlikely that the first quarter of 2023 will show any substantial increase in sales.